ABSTRACT
The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic put considerable strain on healthcare systems worldwide. In order to predict the effect of the local epidemic on hospital capacity in England, we used a variety of data streams to inform the construction and parameterisation of a hospital progression model, EpiBeds, which was coupled to a model of the generalised epidemic. In this model, individuals progress through different pathways (e.g. may recover, die, or progress to intensive care and recover or die) and data from a partially complete patient-pathway line-list was used to provide initial estimates of the mean duration that individuals spend in the different hospital compartments. We then fitted EpiBeds using complete data on hospital occupancy and hospital deaths, enabling estimation of the proportion of individuals that follow the different clinical pathways, the reproduction number of the generalised epidemic, and to make short-term predictions of hospital bed demand. The construction of EpiBeds makes it straightforward to adapt to different patient pathways and settings beyond England. As part of the UK response to the pandemic, EpiBeds provided weekly forecasts to the NHS for hospital bed occupancy and admissions in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland at national and regional scales.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiology , England/epidemiology , Hospitalization , Hospitals , Humans , PandemicsABSTRACT
The current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak poses a major challenge in the treatment decision-making of patients with cancer, who may be at higher risk of developing a severe and deadly SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with the general population. The health care emergency is forcing the reshaping of the daily assessment between risks and benefits expected from the administration of immune-suppressive and potentially toxic treatments. To guide our clinical decisions at the National Cancer Institute of Milan (Lombardy region, the epicenter of the outbreak in Italy), we formulated Coronavirus-adapted institutional recommendations for the systemic treatment of patients with gastrointestinal cancers. Here, we describe how our daily clinical practice has changed due to the pandemic outbreak, with the aim of providing useful suggestions for physicians that are facing the same challenges worldwide.